What the AIM Act actually does
The American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, passed by Congress in December 2020, gave the Environmental Protection Agency authority to phase down the production and import of hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants. The targets are gases with high global warming potential, refrigerants that trap heat in the atmosphere thousands of times more effectively than CO2 over a hundred-year time horizon. R-410A, the dominant residential AC refrigerant since the early 2000s, has a GWP of 2,088. R-404A, used in commercial refrigeration, sits at 3,922. The replacements EPA is steering the industry toward (R-454B, R-32, and various blends) have GWP values under 700. The Act does not ban any refrigerant outright. It caps the total volume that can be produced or imported into the U.S. each year on a stepped schedule. The first big step happened in 2022, when the baseline was set and the first 10% reduction took effect. By 2024 the reduction reached 40%. By 2029 it hits 70%. By 2036 it must reach 85% versus baseline. Each step squeezes the market further, and the cap applies to total HFC tonnage across all uses, so manufacturers had to choose where to allocate scarce supply. For residential HVAC, the practical line was drawn at January 1, 2025. After that date, manufacturers stopped producing new residential central AC and heat pump equipment charged with R-410A. Existing equipment in homes is unaffected, and R-410A continues to be available for service and recharge. But the price floor on that refrigerant has only one direction to move from here. Every five to seven years another step in the phase-down schedule will further constrain supply, and the math will look more and more like the R-22 phase-out of the 2010s.